Waa sidee xaaladda iyo rajada ganacsiga beeralayda ee u dhexeeya Shiinaha iyo dalalka LAC?

I. Dulmarka ganacsiga beeraha ee u dhexeeya Shiinaha iyo wadamada LAC tan iyo markii ay soo galeen WTO

Laga soo bilaabo 2001 ilaa 2023, wadarta mugga ganacsiga ee wax soo saarka beeraha ee u dhexeeya Shiinaha iyo dalalka LAC ayaa muujiyay isbeddel joogto ah, laga bilaabo 2.58 bilyan oo doolarka Maraykanka ilaa 81.03 bilyan oo doolarka Maraykanka ah, iyada oo celcelis ahaan heerka kobaca sanadlaha ah 17.0%. Waxaa ka mid ah, qiimaha badeecadaha la soo dejiyo ayaa kor uga kacay 2.40 bilyan oo doolarka Maraykanka ah, ilaa 77.63 bilyan oo doolarka Maraykanka ah, korodhka 31 jeer; Dhoofintu waxay korodhay 19-laab min $170 milyan ilaa $3.40 bilyan. Waddankeenu waxa uu ku sugan yahay booska hoos u dhaca ganacsiga wax soo saarka beeraha ee wadamada Latin America, hoos u dhacana wuu sii kordhayaa. Suuqa weyn ee isticmaalka wax soo saarka beeraha ee dalkeena ayaa siisay fursado waaweyn horumarinta beeraha ee Latin America. Sanadihii la soo dhaafay, wax soo saarka beeraha tayada sare leh ee Latin America, sida cherry Chile iyo shrimp cad Ecuadorian, ayaa soo galay suuqayada.

Guud ahaan, saamiga wadamada Latin America ee ganacsiga beeraha ee Shiinaha ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah u kordhay, laakiin qaybinta badeecadaha iyo dhoofinta ayaa ah mid aan dheelitirnayn. Laga soo bilaabo 2001 ilaa 2023, saamiga ganacsiga beeraha ee Shiinaha iyo Latin America ee wadarta ganacsiga beeralayda ee Shiinaha ayaa kordhay 9.3% ilaa 24.3%. Waxa ka mid ah, wax-soo-saarka beeraha ee Shiinaha ee ka yimaada wadamada Latin America ayaa ahaa saamiga wadarta badeecadaha laga soo dhoofiyo 20.3% ilaa 33.2%, waxsoosaarka beeraha ee Shiinaha ee loo dhoofiyo wadamada Latin America ayaa ahaa saamiga wadarta guud ee dhoofinta min 1.1% ilaa 3.4%.

2. Astaamaha ganacsiga beeraha ee u dhexeeya Shiinaha iyo wadamada LAC

(1) Wada-hawlgalayaasha ganacsiga ee marka loo eego xooggooda

Sannadkii 2001, Argentina, Brazil iyo Peru ayaa ahaa saddexda il ee ugu sarreeya ee laga soo dejiyo wax soo saarka beeraha ee Latin America, wadarta guud ee la soo dejiyo waxay ahayd 2.13 bilyan oo doolarka Mareykanka ah, taasoo ka dhigan 88.8% wadarta guud ee wax soo saarka beeraha ee Latin America laga keeno sanadkaas. Iyadoo la sii xoojinayo iskaashiga ganacsiga beeraha ee wadamada Latin America, ayaa sanadihii ugu dambeeyay, Chile waxay dhaaftay Peru si ay u noqoto isha saddexaad ee ugu weyn ee wax soo saarka beeraha ee Latin America, iyo Brazil ayaa dhaaftay Argentina si ay u noqoto isha ugu weyn ee beeraha. Sannadkii 2023-kii, wax-soo-saarka Shiinaha ee Brazil, Argentina iyo Chile waxa uu dhan yahay 58.93 bilyan oo doollarka Maraykanka ah, taas oo ka dhigan 88.8% wadarta wax soo saarka beeraha ee dalalka Latin America laga keeno sannadkaas. Waxaa ka mid ah, Shiinuhu waxa uu Brazil ka soo dhoofsadaa 58.58 Bilyan oo Doollarka Maraykanka ah oo wax-soo-saarka beeraha ah, taas oo ka dhigan 75.1% wadarta guud ee wax-soo-saarka beeraha ee laga keeno dalalka Laatiin Ameerika, taas oo ka dhigan 25.0% wadarta guud ee wax-soo-saarka beeraha ee Shiinaha. Brazil kaliya maaha isha ugu weyn ee laga soo dejiyo beeraha ee Latin America, laakiin sidoo kale waa isha ugu weyn ee beeraha laga keeno adduunka.

Sannadkii 2001, Cuba, Mexico iyo Brazil ayaa ahaa saddexda suuq ee ugu sarreeya ee Shiinaha u dhoofiyo beeraha ee dalalka LAC, wadar ahaan qiimaha dhoofinta ee 110 milyan oo doolarka Mareykanka ah, oo ka dhigan 64.4% wadarta guud ee beeraha Shiinaha u dhoofiyo dalalka LAC sanadkaas. Sannadka 2023, Mexico, Chile iyo Brazil ayaa ah saddexda suuq ee ugu sarreeya ee loo dhoofiyo beeraha Shiinaha ee loo dhoofiyo waddamada Laatiin Ameerika, iyadoo wadarta guud ee qiimihiisu yahay 2.15 bilyan oo doollarka Mareykanka ah, taasoo ka dhigan 63.2% wadarta guud ee wax-soo-saarka beeraha ee sannadkaas.

(3) Badeecadaha la soo dejiyo waxaa u badan Shidaalka Saliida iyo Xoolaha Nool, soo dejinta badarka ayaa aad u kordhay sanadihii u dambeeyay.

Shiinaha ayaa ah dalka ugu badan ee soo dhoofsada wax soo saarka beeraha, waxaana uu baahi weyn u qabaa wax soo saarka beeraha sida digirta, hilibka lo’da iyo midhaha laga keeno dalalka Latin America. Tan iyo markii Shiinuhu soo galay WTO, wax-soo-saarka beeraha ee laga keeno dalalka Latin America ayaa u badan saliidda iyo wax soo saarka xoolaha, soo dejinta badarka ayaa aad u kordhay sannadihii u dambeeyay.

Sannadkii 2023-kii, Shiinuhu wuxuu ka soo dhoofsaday 42.29 Bilyan oo Doollarka Maraykanka ah oo shinni saliid ah oo laga keenay dalalka Latin America, korodh dhan 3.3%, taasoo ka dhigan 57.1% wadarta wax soo saarka beeraha ee laga keeno dalalka Latin America. Wax-soo-saarka xoolaha, wax-soo-saarka biyaha iyo badarka ayaa ahaa 13.67 bilyan oo doollarka Maraykanka ah, 7.15 bilyan oo doollarka Mareykanka ah iyo 5.13 bilyan oo doollarka Mareykanka ah, siday u kala horreeyaan. Waxaa ka mid ah, soo dejinta badeecadaha galleyda ahaa 4.05 bilyan oo doolarka Mareykanka ah, taasoo ah koror 137,671 jeer ah, sababta oo ah galleyda Brazil ayaa loo dhoofin jiray baaritaanka Shiinaha iyo helitaanka karantiil. Tirada badan ee galleyda laga keeno Brazil ayaa dib u qortay qaabka galleyda la soo dhoofiyo ee Ukraine iyo Mareykanka waagii hore.

(4) Dhoofinta badi badeecooyinka iyo khudaarta biyaha

Tan iyo markii Shiinuhu ku biiray WTO, wax-soo-saarka beeraha ee loo dhoofiyo waddamada LAC waxay u badnaayeen wax-soo-saarka biyaha iyo khudaarta, sannadihii u dambeeyay, dhoofinta badeecadaha iyo miraha ayaa si joogto ah u kordhay. Sannadkii 2023-kii, badeecadaha iyo khudaarta uu Shiinuhu u dhoofiyo dalalka Laatiin Ameerika waxay ahaayeen $1.19 bilyan iyo $6.0 bilyan siday u kala horreeyaan, taas oo ka dhigan 35.0% iyo 17.6% wadarta guud ee wax-soo-saarka beeraha ee loo dhoofiyo waddamada Latin America, siday u kala horreeyaan.